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Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. (Who is eligible varies by country, and should not be confused with the total adult population. For example, some countries discriminate based on sex, race, and/or religion. Age and citizenship are usually among the criteria.) After increasing for many decades, there has been a trend of decreasing voter turnout in most established democracies since the 1980s.〔Niemi and Weisberg p. 31〕 In general, low turnout may be due to disenchantment, indifference, or contentment. Low turnout is often considered to be undesirable, and there is much debate over the factors that affect turnout and how to increase it. In spite of significant study into the issue, scholars are divided on reasons for the decline. Its cause has been attributed to a wide array of economic, demographic, cultural, technological, and institutional factors. There have been many efforts to increase turnout and encourage voting. Different countries have very different voter turnouts. For example, in the United States 2012 presidential election turnout was 55%. In Belgium, which has compulsory voting, and Malta, which does not, participation reaches 95%. These differences are caused by a mix of cultural and institutional factors. ==Reasons for voting== In any large families of twenty the chance of any one vote determining the outcome is low. Some studies show that a single vote in a voting scheme such as the Electoral College in the United States has an even lower chance of determining the outcome.〔Satoshi Kanazawa. "A Possible Solution to the Paradox of Voter Turnout." ''The Journal of Politics.'' p. 974〕 Other studies claim that the Electoral College actually increases voting power.〔Gelman, Katz,and Teurlinckx. ("The Mathematics and Statistics of Voting Power." ) 'Statistical Science' 2002, vol 17, no 4〕 Studies using game theory, which takes into account the ability of voters to interact, have also found that the expected turnout for any large election should be zero.〔Kanazawa p. 975〕 The basic formula for determining whether someone will vote, on the questionable assumption that people act completely rationally, is〔The basic idea behind this formula was developed by Anthony Downs in ''An Economic Theory of Democracy.'' published in 1957. The formula itself was developed by William H. Riker and Peter Ordeshook and published in "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting." ''American Political Science Review.'' 1968. 62:25–42.〕 : where * ''P'' is the probability that an individual's vote will affect the outcome of an election, * ''B'' is the perceived benefit that would be received if that person's favored political party or candidate were elected, * ''D'' originally stood for democracy or civic duty, but today represents any social or personal gratification an individual gets from voting, and * ''C'' is the time, effort, and financial cost involved in voting. Since ''P'' is virtually zero in most elections, ''PB'' is also near zero, and ''D'' is thus the most important element in motivating people to vote. For a person to vote, these factors must outweigh ''C''. Experimental political science has found that even when ''P'' is likely greater than zero, this term has no effect on voter turnout. Enos and Fowler (2014) conducted a field experiment that exploits the rare opportunity of a tied election for major political office. Informing citizens that the special election to break the tie will be close (meaning a high ''P'' term) has little mobilizing effect on voter turnout. Riker and Ordeshook developed the modern understanding of ''D''. They listed five major forms of gratification that people receive for voting: complying with the social obligation to vote; affirming one's allegiance to the political system; affirming a partisan preference (also known as expressive voting, or voting for a candidate to express support, not to achieve any outcome); affirming one's importance to the political system; and, for those who find politics interesting and entertaining, researching and making a decision.〔Riker and Ordeshook, 1968〕 Other political scientists have since added other motivators and questioned some of Riker and Ordeshook's assumptions. All of these concepts are inherently imprecise, making it difficult to discover exactly why people choose to vote. Recently, several scholars have considered the possibility that B includes not only a personal interest in the outcome, but also a concern for the welfare of others in the society (or at least other members of one's favorite group or party).〔Jankowski, Richard. 2002. "Buying a Lottery Ticket to Help the Poor: Altruism, Civic Duty, and Self-Interest in the Decision to Vote." Rationality and Society 14(1): 55–77.〕〔Edlin, Aaron, Andrew Gelman, and Noah Kaplan. 2007. "Voting as a Rational Choice: Why and How People Vote to Improve the Well-Being of Others." Rationality and Society.〕 In particular, experiments in which subject altruism was measured using a dictator game showed that concern for the well-being of others is a major factor in predicting turnout〔Fowler, James H. "Altruism and Turnout," ''Journal of Politics'' 68 (3): 674–683 (August 2006)〕 and political participation.〔Fowler, James H., Kam CD "Beyond the Self: Altruism, Social Identity, and Political Participation," ''Journal of Politics'' 69 (3): 811–825 (August 2007)〕〔Loewen, PJ "Antipathy, Affinity, and Political Participation," ''Canadian Journal of Political Science'' (Forthcoming 2010)〕 Note that this motivation is distinct from D, because voters must think others benefit from the ''outcome'' of the election, not their ''act'' of voting in and of itself. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「voter turnout」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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